This was not the season it was supposed to be for the Cowboys’ Tony Pollard, not with the departure of star running back Ezekiel Elliott and the handing over of the keys to the running game that came with it. Pollard logged 1,005 yards, which was good for 12th in the NFL and only two yards off last year’s total (1,007) but he did so on 252 carries. His average of 4.0 yards per carry was well off last year’s mark, 5.2 yards per rush.

That has led to speculation that Pollard’s time in Dallas is running short. He is a free agent this offseason, after playing last year on a franchise tag—a one-year deal based on a formula that comes from the league—at $10.1 million. He was one of just eight running backs, per OverTheCap.com, who made eight-figure salaries last year.

The expectation is that the franchise tag was a one-year test period and because it did not go particularly well, the Cowboys will let Pollard walk this offseason. But Pro Football Focus sees a potentially different outcome for Pollard: another franchise tag.

Cowboys’ Tony Pollard Has $6.5 Million-$8 Million Market Value
The Cowboys could ink Pollard to a second franchise tag deal, though it would be the final time they could do that before having to sign him to a contract. OverTheCap.com projects that number to be $12.4 million, and Spotrac has it slightly less, at $11.3 million.

Considering the fact that Spotrac pegs Pollard’s market value at $6.5 million per year, and PFF has his projected contract—if he is not franchised–at three years and $24 million, or $8 million per year, then putting the franchise tag on him this season amounts to agreeing to overpay him by $3 million-$6 million.

Here’s how PFF sees the justification for tagging Pollard and keeping him in Dallas, in an article that looked at, “potential franchise tag candidates this offseason,” for each team:

“The Cowboys franchised Pollard during the 2023 offseason, and his production did not match the price. Pollard appeared in all 17 games, but he saw his yards per rush drop down to 4.0. Tagging him again would be pricey for the Cowboys, but there is a chance he could be better in 2024 after being a full year removed from his leg injury during the 2022 playoffs.”

Leg Injury Was a Factor — or Not?
Pollard did admit that the leg injury bothered him in the early part of the season.

“I would say it’s a night-and-day difference,” Pollard said in December, per SI.com. “You think you’re good. You think you’re all the way back until you’re actually out there making plays, full speed, feeling it. Once you get a feel for it and get your feet under you, then you start to realize, ‘Oh, so I may have lost a little right there.’ But I’m picking it back up.”

But Pollard second-half season numbers in Dallas were not much different than his first-half numbers, and in the playoff loss to Green Bay, he had just 56 yards on 15 carries. So, did he really pick much back up?

The Cowboys have some expensive free agents and extensions to deal with this offseason, and though bringing back Pollard is not out of the question, another franchise tag would be more money than he’s worth. There’s value in having to only give a one-year commitment, but it’s still giving away money for a team that doesn’t have a lot of room to do so.