Today I thought I’d do a little something different with the Daily Belli.

Recently, the percentage of folks voting “he’ll sign with a different team” has approached 50 percent.

So I thought I’d go through all 30 teams and see whether Bellinger appears to be a fit with each one, both payroll-wise and whether those teams would actually want/need a player of his qualifications and positions.

Obviously some MLB teams aren’t in any position at all to sign Bellinger, and I’ll note that. But I thought this might be a useful exercise for me, as well as for you.

Here goes, division by division. All payroll estimates are from Spotrac. The first luxury tax level is $237 million.

NL East

Atlanta Braves: Estimated payroll $221 million, a bit below the first luxury tax level. The Braves could afford Bellinger, but they seem already full up in the outfield and first base. Verdict: No

Miami Marlins: Estimated payroll $75.8 million. That ranks 28th in MLB. Verdict: No

New York Mets: Estimated payroll $283.8 million, which ranks second behind the Yankees. The Mets have shown a propensity to throw money around, and Steve Cohen’s team could afford Bellinger. But they’re pretty much set at the positions Bellinger plays, so I can’t see them thinking he’s worth adding. Verdict: No

Philadelphia Phillies: Estimated payroll $226 million, which ranks fourth. They have spent what they call “stupid money” before and Bellinger would make their outfield better. This is the classic “mystery team.” Verdict: Maybe

Washington Nationals: Estimated payroll: $90 million. They’re rebuilding. Verdict: No

NL Central

Cincinnati Reds: Estimated payroll $84 million. The Reds could contend this year with a lot of talented young players. I can’t see them paying Bellinger. Verdict: No

Chicago Cubs: Estimated payroll $187 million. We’ve been over and over and over this, but I’ll just note here that based on the current Spotrac estimate, the Cubs have plenty of room to pay Bellinger as much as $30 million this year (and for the next few) without going over the luxury tax. They should do it. Verdict: Yes. Please.

Milwaukee Brewers: Estimated payroll $88.9 million. A player like Bellinger is simply not the way they operate in Milwaukee. Verdict: No

Pittsburgh Pirates: Estimated payroll $67 million. See the Brewers note. Verdict: No

St. Louis Cardinals: Estimated payroll $162 million. You know, Paul Goldschmidt’s contract expires after this year. Squint and you could see a spot for Bellinger. As Cubs fans, we’d hate this. I still don’t think Bellinger signs with St. Louis, though. Verdict: Well… maybe

NL West

Arizona Diamondbacks: Estimated payroll $129 million. The D-Backs appear to be trying to put together a winning team fairly cheap, but they are the defending league champions and they’re in Bellinger’s home town. Verdict: Maybe another mystery team?

Colorado Rockies: Estimated payroll $131 million. Not only are they paying Kris Bryant a lot of money, they’re paying $5 million each of the next three years for Nolan Arenado to play for the Cardinals. If Bellinger did sign here, he’d simply make the Rockies slightly less bad, though he’d probably hit a lot of home runs. Verdict: No

Los Angeles Dodgers: Estimated payroll $209 million. Yes, this surprisingly small payroll is largely due to all of Shohei Ohtani’s deferred money; this year he’ll be paid about as much as the Cubs are paying Mike Tauchman. They could afford to bring back Bellinger, but don’t really have a spot for him to return to L.A. Verdict: No

San Diego Padres: Estimated payroll $144 million. They could afford Bellinger. They actually have a spot for him — he’d be a lot better at 1B than Jake Cronenworth, who they are paying a ridiculous amount of money for mediocre production. Still, they don’t seem interested. Verdict: Possible mystery team, but I lean toward “no.”

San Francisco Giants: Estimated payroll $134 million. The Giants have been mentioned as a fit for Bellinger and there have supposedly been some talks between Scott Boras and the team regarding him, though how recently we don’t know. The thing is, the Giants have already signed a fair number of high priced free agents. They seem happy with their team. so I’m going to say… Verdict: No

AL East

Baltimore Orioles: Estimated payroll $92 million. They could certainly afford Bellinger, but seem focused on their young hitters and pitching, and especially with some of their pitchers looking like they might start the season on the IL, could possibly go after Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery instead. Verdict: No

Boston Red Sox: Estimated payroll $159 million. The Red Sox finished last in a competitive division last year and with former Cubs exec Craig Breslow now in charge, seem like they’re retooling, or doing a Jed Hoyer “rebuild that isn’t a rebuild.” Verdict: No

New York Yankees: Estimated payroll $290 million. That’s the most in MLB currently, way into the luxury tax, and they don’t seem to have a spot for Bellinger, even though the team and player were linked often by various reporters this offseason. Verdict: No

Tampa Bay Rays: Estimated payroll $83 million. Which is actually a lot for a team noted for operating on the cheap. They don’t make free-agent signings like this. Verdict: No

Toronto Blue Jays: Estimated payroll $222 million, currently ranking fifth in MLB. The team and Bellinger were linked often this offseason, but signing him would put them way into the luxury tax and I don’t see them going there. They appear to have moved on. Verdict: No

AL Central

Chicago White Sox: Estimated payroll $124 million. In this case I’m just going to say: Do you really think Bellinger would want to put himself in that mess? Verdict: No

Cleveland Guardians: Estimated payroll $84 million. They just don’t make signings like this. Verdict: No

Detroit Tigers: Estimated payroll $92 million. Well, you know… the Tigers aren’t that far from contention. On the other hand, maybe they want to dump some of Javy’s contract and start over. I can’t see Bellinger doing this. Verdict: No

Kansas City Royals: Estimated payroll $103 million. The Royals made some significant signings this offseason and signed homegrown star Bobby Witt Jr. to a big-money extension. All of this might have been done in part because they want public money for a new downtown stadium and wanted to gussy up the team a bit. They’re still a long way from contention, a place where Bellinger probably wouldn’t want to go. Verdict: No

Minnesota Twins: Estimated payroll $112 million. They have made one big signing of this nature (Carlos Correa), but in general they don’t do this sort of thing. Verdict: No

AL West

Houston Astros: Estimated payroll $237 million, so they’re already at the first luxury tax level. Houston’s already loaded with hitters, but I suppose Bellinger could fit in at first base once Jose Abreu retires. There’s one year left on Abreu’s deal after this year. Still, I don’t really see a fit. Verdict: Mostly no with a tiny bit of maybe.

Los Angeles Angels: Estimated payroll $156.9 million. If we are operating under the assumption that Bellinger enjoyed southern California and might want to return there to play, I suppose it’s possible, but this would be a major come-down from the Dodgers. Without Ohtani the Angels are presumably in rebuild mode — and keep in mind they haven’t had a winning season since 2015. If they spend, I’d think they’d spend on pitching. Verdict: No

Oakland Athletics: Estimated payroll $45.5 million, lowest in MLB. Hahahahahahahahaha… oh, wait, I’m supposed to take all of these somewhat seriously. So seriously: No

Seattle Mariners: Estimated payroll $124 million. Adding Bellinger to what’s already a pretty good team makes some sense. They could play him in left field. Does Bellinger want to play in Seattle? No one knows, really. This would have been a much better place for Kris Bryant to sign than Colorado, that’s for sure. If the Mariners wanted to make a splash, I could see it, maybe. Verdict: Possible mystery team

Texas Rangers: Estimated payroll $215 million. They spent a ton of money over the last two years and won the World Series. This is a solid team top to bottom and they will be among the favorites to win it again. They don’t need Bellinger. Verdict: No

So let’s tally up the verdicts above.

No: 23
Maybe: 3
Possible mystery team: 3
Yes please: 1

It would seem to me that the Cubs are both the best fit for Bellinger, plus he fits many different needs on the team. A number of his 2023 Cubs teammates have praised him publicly; those still on the team want him back and Marcus Stroman also gave him props from Yankees camp:

In the Wall Street Journal, Lindsey Adler reported this, regarding Scott Boras clients Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell:

Montgomery, who finished the 2023 season with the World Series winning Texas Rangers, appears to also have had his market impacted by the Rangers’ issues with their local television deal, which was finally resolved last week.

But he’s been a curious victim of the Boras bottleneck. Team officials who have spoken with Boras about his remaining free agent pitchers say that inquiries about Montgomery have largely been brushed aside by his agent in favor of discussing Snell.

This doesn’t seem to be serving his client.

We’re one week from the opening Spring Training games. It’s really time for Jed Hoyer and Boras to stop the staring contest and get Bellinger back in a Cubs uniform, where he belongs.