Sean Payton may not be able to stand pat and get a quarterback.

Not if he wants Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye — or even J.J. McCarthy, who appears to be trending toward a top-10 slot that would require the Broncos moving up at least a few picks in order to acquire the Michigan passer.

And if Sean Payton wants to make a move, he would need to do so without a full complement of draft picks — thanks in part to both the trade for Payton himself and the trade up to select cornerback Riley Moss last year. And, oh, by the way, the Broncos face a salary-cap crunch with a substantial dead-money hit that will require restructures, cuts, perhaps trades — or some combination thereof.

Moving up to the No. 5 overall pick for McCarthy — if that’s what is required — might be tempting, but it doesn’t come without problems, as NFL Network’s primary draft analyst, Daniel Jeremiah, noted during a two-hour conference call with media from around the nation Thursday.

“Yeah, it would be tough. You have no second-round pick. There’s other holes on the roster,” Jeremiah said.

Daniel Jeremiah says that “it would be tough” for the Broncos to move up and draft a QB given their needs & lack of draft capital.

He adds:

“Sean (Payton) is going to have what he’s looking for at the position … You don’t make that type of a move for a guy that you like … “ pic.twitter.com/YY5lSJamQb

— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) February 22, 2024

But at the same time, the primacy of the quarterback position and Payton’s expertise there makes this idea clear: If Sean Payton truly wants a quarterback from this year’s class, it might not be a question of whether he can afford to make an audacious move up the board — but whether he can afford NOT to.

“I would say Sean is going to have what he is looking for at the position. To me it’s if you 100% fall in love and he is your … best guy,” Jeremiah explained. “Just because somebody might be the No. 1 pick or No. 1 on the board, doesn’t mean he is No. 1 on your board.

“If you have a guy that you think is the best one, that you think is a cornerstone at the most important position for the next decade-plus, and you have conviction, I know I don’t have any problem with it. Even though you might have some other holes to fill, I think that’s what it comes down to.”

And it can’t be for a quarterback prospect that you simply “like.” To like, say, J.J. McCarthy isn’t enough.

“You don’t make that type of a move for a guy you like. You make that type of a move for a guy you think has a chance to be really special,” Jeremiah said. “That would be my thought process there. That would be the hurdle that would have to clear to make something like that happen.”

McCarthy is the likely No. 4 quarterback off the board. So, perhaps the Broncos could wait to see if he falls.

But the New York Giants — picking No. 6 overall — have a pressing quarterback need. So do the Atlanta Falcons at No. 8. And the Minnesota Vikings, who hold the No. 11 pick, could opt to not re-sign Kirk Cousins.

“I think when you look at the draft and you look at picks 6 and 8, if they are sitting there in and the top three quarterbacks go, and somehow you get past the Giants and you get past the Atlanta Falcons, now, if you — if that fourth quarterback is still there, now the cost isn’t quite as great to maybe if you get a little bit nervous and want to maybe just move up ahead of the Minnesota Vikings, you can do that,” Jeremiah said.

“That would be the other thing for them to keep an eye on.”

But above all, it’s a matter of love.

And if Sean Payton loves a prospect … in Jeremiah’s eyes, he should do what it takes to draft him.

“We’ll see how this all shakes out,” Jeremiah said.