Saquon Barkley seems earmarked to reach free agency but may wind up settling for a similar contract that he turned down from the New York Giants last offseason.

Barkley is hitting the open market at a time when teams across the NFL have never valued running backs less, and seem content to cycle through veteran star players at the position before drafting young players to avoid added injury risk and decline later in their careers.

However, according to former NFL agent, and current CBS Sports analyst Joel Corry, Barkley might prove to be a bit of an exception as the most coveted running back in this star-studded free agent class at the position.

“NFL teams exercised fiscal restraint with running backs in free agency last year,” Corry points out for CBS. “The top deal on the open market went to Miles Sanders. He got a four-year, $25.64 million contract from the Carolina Panthers with $13 million fully guaranteed after a 2022 season with the Eagles in which he had career highs of 1,269 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns, which were fifth and eight in the NFL respectively.

“Barkley played the 2023 season on a $10.091 million franchise tag last season in which $909,000 worth of incentives were added for a maximum of $11 million after he and the Giants and couldn’t get a deal done before the mid-July deadline for franchise players to sign multi-year contract years despite initially starting negotiations during the middle of the 2022 season. He reportedly rejected a three-year offer in the $11 million-per-year neighborhood with $22 million to $23 million in guarantees at this deadline. These sides were apparently within $2 million of what Barkley was looking for to consummate a deal.”

Corry projects Barkley’s contract to be a three-year pact worth $33 million.

Given the abundance of star running backs set to be available, including Josh Jacobs, Derek Henry, D’Andre Swift, and Austin Ekeler, along with Barkley, signing a $23 million deal should be considered a victory for the No. 2 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft.

Saquon Barkley
Dec 25, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley (26) against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
Whether the New York Giants can afford to sign Saquon Barkley or want to pay a premium for a running back are two very different questions.

General manager Joe Schoen and the Giants currently have approximately $41 million in cap space in 2024 and are projected to have upwards of $149.5 million in 2025. New York seemingly has plenty of spending flexibility to bring Barkley back, especially on a backloaded contract.

However, the Giants also must find a way to re-sign ascending safety Xavier McKinney, and could prefer from a roster-building standpoint to allocate resources elsewhere and allowing Barkley to move on via free agency.

Barkley would undoubtedly see a strong market, especially given the need and resources teams such as the Philadelphia Eagles, Houston Texans, Baltimore Ravens, and Washington Commanders have at their disposal in a season where the salary cap has reached an unprecedented $255.4 million.

Saquon Barkley has been the face of the Giants’ franchise, but has the opportunity now to both cash in and potentially sign with a contender with a legitimate chance to compete for Super Bowls beginning in 2024.