![\"Hu\u1ea5n](\"https:\/\/heavy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/OConnell-Campbell-e1704422119463.jpg?quality=65&strip=all&w=780\")
<\/p>\nWith time running short on a postseason berth, the\u00a0Minnesota Vikings\u00a0(7-9) will travel to the Motor City to face the NFC North rival\u00a0Detroit Lions\u00a0(11-5) in Week 18.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Everything is on the line for Minnesota in this one, as a victory would boost their playoff odds to 15% according\u00a0to the New York Times\u2019 postseason simulator. On the flip side, the Lions have already clinched a top-three seed in the conference by winning their division along with a three-game lead over all NFC South teams.<\/p>\n
Despite that, Detroit head coach\u00a0Dan Campbell has already committed to playing his starters against the Vikings. \u201cThat\u2019s the plan right now, play our guys,\u201d Campbell told reporters on January 1. Adding: \u201cWhen we\u2019re done with the season, they\u2019re going to rest. I promise you that. They\u2019re going to get plenty of time off.\u201d<\/p>\n
To help you prepare for this intense conclusion to the 2023 regular season, here are five predictions generated by Heavy Sports\u2019 AI-powered projections model, powered by our partners at\u00a0Quarter 4:<\/p>\n
Although Quarter 4\u2019s projected over\/under total (45.0) appears to be within a half-point of six of the seven major sportsbooks \u2014 with the exception being PointsBet at 46.0 \u2014 our model does deviate a bit when it comes to the spread.<\/p>\n
The projected lines currently range from Lions -3.5 to Lions -3.0 on all seven major sportsbooks including ESPN Bet. However, Quarter 4 has its line set at Lions -2.0 on the evening of January 4, which is a jump of 1-to-1.5 points in favor of the Vikings.<\/p>\n
Detroit defeated Minnesota on the road by a\u00a0score of 30-24 during the initial 2023 matchup between the two franchises on December 24. Of course, there\u2019s a lot more at stake for the Vikings this time around.<\/p>\n
Over the past five meetings, the Lions have gone 3-2. They have achieved a 6.33-point average differential during those victories, while the Vikings only have a 3-point average differential in the two games they\u2019ve won.<\/p>\n
Jared Goff\u00a0struggled with turnovers against the\u00a0Dallas Cowboys\u00a0last weekend, but he still ended up throwing for 271 passing yards \u2014 with 250 yards or more through the air in\u00a0each of his past three starts.<\/p>\n
Based on those recent numbers, our model projects a below-average performance from Goff (223.8 passing yards). In turn,\u00a0Vikings starting\u00a0quarterback\u00a0Nick Mullens\u00a0is expected to have a big game\u00a0with 250.1 passing yards\u00a0and a 71% completion rate.<\/p>\n
Last time these two teams faced one another, Minnesota turned Mullens loose\u00a0for 411 passing yards despite four interceptions. His yardage totals have varied significantly over the course of his four 2023 appearances, but this could be another outing where Vikings head coach Kevin O\u2019Connell throws the ball downfield early and often.<\/p>\n
Superstar wideout\u00a0Justin Jefferson\u00a0is\u00a0projected to\u00a0lead the Minnesota passing attack on the receiving side, with an expected 5.0 catches for 79 yards and a touchdown.<\/p>\n
The Lions might finish off the Vikings on January 7, but according to our projections, it won\u2019t be the powerful Detroit rushing attack that does Minnesota in.<\/p>\n
On the season, the Lions have\u00a0averaged 140.06 yards per game\u00a0on the ground \u2014 a statistic that ranks fourth in the NFL. Despite that, Quarter 4 has running backs\u00a0David Montgomery\u00a0(73.6) and\u00a0Jahmyr Gibbs\u00a0(54.7) projected to rush for a combined total of 128.3 yards in Week 18.<\/p>\n
Even if other positions were to add a few rushing yards to that tally, it will likely fall short of Detroit\u2019s impressive 2023 average.<\/p>\n
That could have something to do with the Vikings\u2019\u00a0ninth-ranked defense\u00a0against the run. In recent weeks, Minnesota has held opposing offenses to fewer than 140 rushing yards in\u00a0eight out of their last 10 matchups.<\/p>\n
Be advised though, the two outings they allowed over 140 rushing yards \u2014 totals of 143 and 177 \u2014 came in Weeks 16 and 17, respectively.<\/p>\n
Relative to their 2023 averages, Quarter 4 projects that the Vikings defense will have more trouble against rookie tight end\u00a0Sam LaPorta\u00a0than star wide receiver\u00a0Amon-Ra St. Brown.<\/p>\n
LaPorta averages 53.75 yards per game this season, but our model believes he\u2019ll surpass that receiving total with\u00a057.3 yards against Minnesota.<\/p>\n
St. Brown, on the other hand, is\u00a0expected to be held to\u00a0just 6.4 receptions and 80.4 receiving yards. A performance like that would fall well short of his 91.4 yard per game average this year.<\/p>\n
Of course, St. Brown\u2019s snap count could factor into his total output in Week 18. Campbell noted that his starters will play, but he never said how much. Both LaPorta and St. Brown are key pieces for Detroit, but the Lions have a greater number of wide receivers\u00a0on the roster than tight ends.<\/p>\n
Finally, Quarter 4 predicts that the Vikings will stick with\u00a0Ty Chandler\u00a0as the lead back in Detroit. Below are his rushing projections compared to that of\u00a0Alexander Mattison.<\/p>\n
Chandler Projections:\u00a011.9 attempts, 42.5 rushing yards, 1.7 receptions.<\/p>\n
Mattison Projections:\u00a05.1 attempts, 20.6 rushing yards, 1.0 reception.<\/p>\n
Mattison returned from a brief absence on December 24, but Chandler has retained the starting job despite his presence. In recent weeks, the latter has been\u00a0given 18 total carries\u00a0divided pretty evenly between Weeks 16 and 17, while Mattison has only\u00a0carried the ball five times over that span.<\/p>\n
Either way, this rushing attack is not expected to carry the load for Mullens and the offense at just 63.1 combined yards between the two.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
With time running short on a postseason berth, the\u00a0Minnesota Vikings\u00a0(7-9) will travel to the Motor City to face the NFC North rival\u00a0Detroit Lions\u00a0(11-5) in Week 18. Everything… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-77646","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-nfl"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/aweu.info\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77646","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/aweu.info\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/aweu.info\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aweu.info\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aweu.info\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=77646"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/aweu.info\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77646\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/aweu.info\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=77646"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aweu.info\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=77646"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aweu.info\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=77646"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}