Here’s everything you need to know about the Dallas Stars vs. Vegas Golden Knights Game 6 on Friday, May 3 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The momentum swings have been profound in the Central Division showdown between the Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights. After stealing the first two games, the Knights have gone on to drop three straight, putting them on the brink of elimination on Friday night. Now, Vegas faces a do-or-die situation at T-Mobile Arena, needing a win over the visiting Stars to force a Game 7.
However, the Stars have a decisive advantage that isn’t reflected in the current Stars vs. Golden Knights odds. Dallas has been the superior team throughout most of the series, using elite play in both ends of the ice to subdue a talented Vegas side.
The betting market might be too shy to take a stance on the Stars, but we’re not. We’re making a principled play on Dallas walking away victorious and punching its ticket to the second round in Game 6. You can check it out below with my Dallas vs. Vegas pick and prediction.
Stars vs. Golden Knights Odds
Friday, May 3, 10 p.m. ET, TNT & truTV
| Stars Odds | -115 |
| Golden Knights Odds | -105 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -120 / +100 |
Dallas Stars
You wouldn’t expect it with how things have gone early in the playoffs or by the number of teams that have already advanced to Round 2, but the Stars have been the best team in this year’s postseason.
They lead the league in expected goals-for rating, posting a robust 60.6% rating through the first five games. It’s not just one mighty effort either; Dallas has dominated this series from the outset.
Other than a flat first period on Monday night, the Stars have asserted themselves as the best against the Knights. Dallas has outplayed Vegas in four of five games, resulting in the top expected goals-for rating in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Focusing the lens on a more granular level reveals an even more commanding effort. The Stars have outplayed the Golden Knights in 10 of 15 periods, dictating offense and pace throughout.
Arguably, the most impressive feature of the Stars metrics is their defensive presence. The Central Division winners have suffocated the wild card side, limiting the Golden Knights to nine or fewer high-danger chances in each outing. Vegas’ 6.6 high-danger chances per game are the third-worst in the postseason, highlighting their inability to penetrate the Stars’ defensive shell.
Irrespective of venue, Dallas has excelled defensively. We’re anticipating another stout performance in Game 6.
Vegas Golden Knights
Defensively, the Golden Knights have let their guard down, which has been a primary factor in their worsening metrics. In just five games, Vegas has given up more high-danger and scoring chances than any other playoff team, getting burned for an average of 12.8 and 28.4, respectively.
They may have held the Stars to just seven quality opportunities last time out, but they are due for regression on Friday night.
Prior to their most recent defeat, the Knights had repeatedly let the Stars burn them. Dallas attempted no fewer than 10 high-danger chances through the first four games, totaling 57 for an average of 14.3. Likewise, Vegas hasn’t had an answer for the Stars’ scoring chances, giving up an average of 31.3 prior to their improved effort in their most recent contest.
Still, we don’t expect the Golden Knights to replicate that performance. Clearly, diminished defensive efforts have been a concern throughout, and it’s unlikely that will change at home.
Further, we don’t trust the Knights offense to offset those defensive deficiencies. Vegas is tied for the second-fewest goals at 5-on-5 this postseason, scoring on a paltry 6.2% of shots. That means that nearly half of their 13 goals have come on special teams, indicating a completely unsustainable way of winning games.
Vegas’ luck is about to run out; the Knights appear poised for a fourth straight loss on Friday night.
Stars vs. Golden Knights
Betting Pick & Prediction
From puck drop in Game 1, the Stars have been the superior team. They continue to outplay the Golden Knights on a nightly basis, asserting themselves in both ends of the ice.
Consequently, that has tilted the analytics in Dallas’ favor, a fact that is not yet reflected in the betting prices.
We’re betting the Stars don’t let the moment pass them and instead sustain their elite efforts at T-Mobile Arena. Although we like them to win, we can’t discount the potential of this one needing overtime again.
As such, our two plays are the Stars moneyline up to -120 and the 60-minute tie at +330 or better.
The Picks: Stars (-110 at PointsBet) | 60-minute tie (+340 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
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